May 30, 2024

Over the past year and a half, the House has been dominated by GOP infighting, leadership upheaval, and unsurprisingly, little to show in terms of legislation — partially a function of Republicans’ miniscule majority. And six months out, it makes sense that many Democrats are more bullish about their chances of taking back the House majority than retaining the Senate or White House.

Democrats need a net gain of just four seats to reach the 218 necessary for a majority. According to our individual race ratings, Republicans have a slight edge overall, but it’s not much of one. Democrats are favored in 203 House races, and Republicans are favored in 210 races, leaving both parties short of 218.

That means control of the House in 2025 will come down to a few dozen seats, where even marginal changes in the political environment could tip the scales for either party. The 22 true Toss Ups — currently divided evenly between 11 Democratic-held seats and 11 Republican-held seats — are concentrated in a handful of states including California, New York, Arizona, Michigan,