Democrats received a crucial jolt of momentum following former Rep. Tom Suozzi’s (D-N.Y.) victory in the race for the disgraced ex-Rep. George Santos’s (R) seat in New York.
The win narrows the margin in the House and gives Democrats a much-needed dash of optimism heading into November, where the Empire State will play a central role in their efforts to flip the lower chamber.
And while political analysts warn against extrapolating too much from a special election victory defined by unusual circumstances — including a snowstorm that might have impacted turnout — Suozzi’s win could also offer lessons for Democrats running in competitive districts as the party grapples with President Biden’s unpopularity.
“Special elections are not 100 percent predictive, but they are always instructive,” said former Rep. Steve Israel (D-N.Y.), who previously represented Santos’s district and was a chair for the House Democrats’ campaign arm.
“What we learned from the [New York race] is that suburban battleground districts remain up for grabs in the presidential election and that when you have a candidate like Tom Suozzi who doesn’t try and run away from tough issues but leans into them, you can win,” he added.
Democrats entered Tuesday’s special election in need of a win.
The Biden administration had just come off a damning report from special counsel Robert Hur that raised questions about the president’s memory, calling Biden a “well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory.”
Meanwhile, polls have shown widespread disapproval of his job performance, especially on the key issues of the economy and immigration.
The Democrats in New York’s 3rd Congressional District turned to Suozzi, a moderate, as they faced pressure to flip the seat in the aftermath of the scandals surrounding Santos.
Suozzi not only pulled off a win Tuesday but also exceeded expectations, winning by almost 8 points over Republican Mazi Pilip, according to the latest vote tally.
“It’s been happening a lot that Dems are overperforming expectations in special elections, flipping seats and beating margins,” said Matt Caffrey, the organizing director of the left-wing grassroots group Swing Left.
Suozzi benefitted from several advantages over Pilip, having represented the district for six years. He also significantly outraised and outspent her.
Democrats said ahead of the vote that the stakes of the race were higher for their own party because of Santos, Suozzi’s inherent advantages and the district having voted for Biden in 2020.
Caffrey said the fact that Suozzi was able to exceed expectations is a “big deal.”
Suozzi sought to tailor his message specifically to the district, focusing on issues facing voters in Nassau and Queens counties, which make up the district, and separating himself from Biden. He emphasized his willingness to go against his own party and work across the aisle to achieve solutions.
Caffrey said Suozzi facilitated grassroots efforts that Swing Left volunteers took part in to knock on doors and make calls.
“I suspect we will continue to see all year this groundswell … the anti-MAGA majority in this country, activists continue to be really energized,” he said.
It’s not the first time that Democrats have performed well in critical elections while navigating the unpopularity of their incumbent president, whose approval rating remains underwater. Added to Biden’s woes are the concerns over his age — seen as a bigger issue for the 81-year-old Democrat even though former President Trump, his likely rival in November, is 77.
Rep. Suzan DelBene (D-Wash.), the chair of the House Democrats’ campaign arm, said it’s critical to “draw that strong contrast between our candidates” on what they’re doing for their constituents, arguing that Republicans are mired in “chaos, dysfunction and extremism and have no interest in governing.”
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) said the 3rd District was “the toughest swing district in New York by far,” suggesting Democrats face good odds in picking off the handful of vulnerable Republican incumbents in the state fighting for reelection in November.
There are roughly half a dozen battleground races in the Empire State this year, with four of them listed as “toss-ups” by Cook Political Report. However, the state’s congressional maps are also set to be redrawn before November, with Democrats possibly benefitting.
“Tom Suozzi talked about issues, fixing challenges [and] solving problems,” Jeffries said. “And there certainly are lessons to be learned in that regard for other candidates.”
Israel, the former chair for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, suggested that Democrats in swing districts could use Suozzi’s approach as a blueprint ahead of November, noting how the candidate distanced “himself at times with President Biden without antagonizing the base.”
Some Republicans have sought to downplay the results of the New York special election. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) told reporters on Wednesday that Suozzi’s win “is in no way a bellwether of what’s going to happen this fall.”
The National Republican Congressional Committee released a memo Wednesday suggesting the race had been stacked against Republicans, given that Suozzi had high name ID compared with Pilip.
“The wall-to-wall coverage of the migrant crisis in New York forced Suozzi to compete on our turf,” the memo said. “But even being outspent two-to-one, and with our candidate being significantly outraised, Republicans did significant damage to Suozzi’s image.”
Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), who represents one of the most competitive seats heading into November after flipping the seat in the midterms, noted that Democrats had to spend heavily to win back a seat for a candidate who’s spent three decades in office. But Lawler also credited Suozzi for leaning into the pertinent issue of immigration and the border.
“If you look at his messaging — he distanced himself from President Biden and the Democrats. He was very focused on the top issue of border security. And so obviously, he ran a good race in a special election,” Lawler said. “Special elections are just that — special.”
Other Republicans saw warning signs in Tuesday’s results.
“Tonight is the final wakeup call for the @HouseGOP,” said GOP pollster Frank Luntz in a post on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter. “If they ignore or attempt to explain away why they lost, they will lose in November as well. The issue agenda is on their side. Their congressional behavior is not.”
Rep. Marc Molinaro, another Republican currently representing a toss-up district in New York, warned there was a lesson to be gleaned for the GOP.
“The lesson to be learned is two-fold: One, special elections suck, we know this. And as importantly, we have to deliver on our commitment to the people we serve,” he said.
Democrats said Suozzi’s approach should provide a roadmap for how members of the party can handle the thorny issue of immigration.
“Yesterday was a great victory and a sign that the best defense is a strong offense,” Rep. Adriano Espaillat (D-N.Y.) told reporters on Wednesday.
He argued that Suozzi’s win demonstrates that Democrats’ ability to clearly articulate their position on immigration is key to their success.
“What do we do about border safety, jobs and the economy, immigration reform and the root causes of migration? If we can address this head on, we can win,” he said.
The party is already signaling that it will go on offense over immigration. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee released an ad Wednesday denouncing Republican senators who voted against advancing the bipartisan border legislation in the Senate. Suozzi had backed the bill.
One national Democrat said they expect the issue to play a central role in the New York battlegrounds in the fall. Five of them, including the 3rd District, voted for Biden in 2020 before electing a Republican representative in 2022.
“Any way we can help our candidates across New York to replicate the same playbook, we will be doing over the course of the next nine months,” the Democrat said.
Mike Lillis and Mychael Schnell contributed to this report.
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