Over the last month, I have spoken with tens of highly experienced Republicans, asking them the same question: “Which Democrat would you most fear in the 2024 presidential election?”
Not surprisingly — at least to me and others tracking the race — neither President Joe Biden nor Vice President Kamala Harris made the list. With regard to Biden, no matter how much the Democratic Party or its allies in the media may push his electability, every Republican I spoke with felt that either former President Donald Trump or Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis could defeat him in 2024.
Two main reasons came to the forefront. First, Biden’s advanced age and his perceived cognitive issues. Regarding at least his age, an NBC News poll released in April found 70 percent of Americans believed Biden shouldn’t run for a second term. Of the 70 percent of respondents who didn’t want a repeat Biden White House run, nearly half of them pointed to Biden’s age as the “major reason.”
Second, most Republicans I spoke with felt Biden would be an exceptionally weak candidate because of the ongoing investigation of his son, Hunter Biden, regarding his dealings with the Ukrainian natural gas firm Burisma Holdings, which some are speculating could implicate his father. Earlier this week, the Justice Department announced that Hunter will plead guilty to two misdemeanor counts of willful failure to pay federal income tax while also agreeing to enter into a pretrial diversion agreement regarding a separate charge of possession of a firearm.
Because of the younger Biden pleading guilty and taking a plea deal, some believe a crack in the Biden defense has been opened in which other information potentially harmful to the president might leak out.
As for Vice President Harris, the Republicans I spoke with mentioned that they don’t believe her own party has her back. They pointed to news articles regarding her massive staff turnover; her unfavorable poll numbers among Democrats; that she was the first candidate forced out of the Democratic primary in 2020; and the fact that the president and his team have seemingly thrown her to the wolves regarding the border crisis.
While those I spoke with dismissed Biden and Harris as candidates to be feared in 2024, there were three names mentioned who did instill real dread: California Gov. Gavin Newsom; former First Lady Michelle Obama and current candidate for the Democratic nomination Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.
But because Biden has announced he is running for reelection, he has seemingly frozen the party into an uncomfortable or untenable place.
That leaves potential Democratic candidates with four options: 1) line up loyally behind Biden and Harris; 2) challenge the sitting president; 3) begin to run a shadow campaign; and 4) wait to see if Biden does drop out and for the party to turn to you for salvation.
Regarding options two and three, we come to the person most feared by the Republicans I spoke with: California Gov. Gavin Newsom.
While Newsom has not announced, if it looks like a presidential candidate, walks like a presidential candidate and talks like a presidential candidate, it is most likely a presidential candidate. So much so that a headline in The Hill last weekend read: “Newsom’s media blitz fuels presidential talk.”
Newsom is definitely upping his game. He surprised many by agreeing to go on Fox News to be interviewed by Sean Hannity. While some Democrats may have seen it as venturing into the belly of the beast, I saw it as a very wise political move. Not only did he get to go toe to toe with one of the most powerful commentators in the conservative world, but he was able to reach a much wider audience with his talking points while getting in some shots at Gov. DeSantis. In many respects, it was a win across the board for Newsom.
As noted in The Hill article, during the interview with Hannity, Newsom said he would agree to participate in a debate with DeSantis moderated by Hannity. DeSantis quickly responded to Newsom’s challenge by saying the California governor should stop “pussyfooting around” and jump in the 2024 race.
My advice to DeSantis: “Watch what you wish for.”
Next on the “most feared” list was former First Lady Michelle Obama. Now, while most Democrats and most liberal pundits might openly scoff at the idea of a Michelle Obama candidacy, Republicans are keeping their fingers crossed that she remains in private life and off the presidential stage.
They fully understand that Michelle Obama has both the “It Factor” as well as an unknown “X Factor.” She not only would appeal to the traditional Democratic base and a large percentage of independents, but would energize potentially millions of voters who had previously stayed home. More than that, the Republicans I spoke with noted that she would have the full weight and resources of the Obama machine behind her. Formidable to say the least.
Last on the list is the current challenger to Biden, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. He is an emerging populist who is attracting more supporters by the day. While most of the media and the Democratic Party dismiss him as an annoyance, the Republicans I spoke with believed that if he ever were the Democratic nominee, both Trump and DeSantis would be hard pressed to defeat him.
Right now, it’s “Biden and Harris or Bust” for the Democratic Party in 2024. But circumstances, needs and stark realities flip on a dime in presidential politics.
If that dime flips a few more times, the Democratic National Committee might open up the process and send a number of Republicans into a full-blown panic.
Douglas MacKinnon, a political and communications consultant, was a writer in the White House for Presidents Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush, and former special assistant for policy and communications at the Pentagon during the last three years of the Bush administration.
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