What, exactly, the playbook would look like if Trump actually goes to jail remains to be seen. But, based on the tactics currently being deployed by the campaign, it would almost certainly include a ramp-up of fundraising messages, surrogates arguing Trump’s side in the media, and a heightened focus on claims that the case is politically motivated — in fact, some of Trump’s aides believe that any sort of further restrictions, whether it be jail or home confinement, would clearly serve as further proof of their core argument that the trial is “election interference.”
That’s not to say Trump wants to go to jail, contrary to speculation — admittedly fueled by Trump himself, who has said that going to jail over the gag order would be a “great honor” akin to Nelson Mandela’s imprisonment — suggesting otherwise. His lawyers, meanwhile, would prefer he simply stay quiet, though they recognize the unique situation of having a client who is running for president and constantly surrounded by the press.
But Trump is unlikely to remain silent, making the possibility of punishment beyond fines all the more likely — regardless of how much the judge would like to avoid it.
