AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell
A new poll shows former President Donald Trump with a commanding lead over Governor Ron DeSantis in the 2024 Republican primary, even in DeSantis’ home state of Florida.
The study from the Florida Atlantic University Mainstreet PolCom Lab shows that if the GOP presidential primary were held today, DeSantis would receive 30.2 percent of the vote from Floridians, far above most of his rival candidates. However, Trump has 50.3 percent of statewide primary voters, just above a 20 percent lead over the only candidate anywhere close to him.
For further perspective, the poll also asked participants who they would support if all candidates but Trump and DeSantis were taken out of the primary. In that scenario, DeSantis polled at 37 percent, but Trump maintained a decisive lead of 54 percent with 8 percent undecided.
“The poll highlights Donald Trump’s quite durable support,” said FAU political science professor Kevin Wagner. “He does especially well with white working-class voters, who have consistently formed a steadfast base for the former President. This persistent support continues to bolster Trump’s strong and steady position within the party.”
The poll also established Trump’s solid hold over a fraction of the GOP, for approximately 1 out of 5 Republicans said it would be “disloyal” to back any other candidate than the former president. The result follows recent questions about DeSantis’ ability to rival Trump, given that his campaign has yet to make major headway against him.
The good news for DeSantis is that the poll shows that the gap between him and Trump has narrowed by seven percent since FAU and Mainstreet poll’s last results from April. Between that and the 54 percent approval rating DeSantis currently has among Floridians, it’s possible the race between him and Trump will continue to tighten over time.
The poll also looked at how Trump and DeSantis would fare against President Joe Biden in Florida. By these results, Trump would defeat Biden in a match-up of 49 percent versus 39 percent, though DeSantis would do somewhat better by trouncing Biden 49 percent to 36 percent.
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