April 16, 2024

Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. In this column, JWR also covers hedges, derivatives, and various obscura. Most of these items are from JWR’s “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective. Today, we look at the commercial real estate market. (See the Tangibles Investing section.)

Precious Metals:

Fitch: Platinum And Palladium: High Risk Of Future Supply Disruption.

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At Kitco.com: Gold prices treading water around $2,000 an ounce as U.S. GPD grows 1.1% in Q1.

Economy & Finance:

First Republic Bank continues to crumble: First Republic advisers have lined up potential purchasers of bank’s new stock – CNBC.

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This piece from Fortune was linked over at the Whatfinger.com news aggregation site: First Republic Bank lost more than $72 billion in deposits during the first quarter—and plans to lay off up to 25% of its workforce.

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And CBS reports: First Republic shares continue their free fall amid mounting worries.

JWR’s Comments:  In early February, First Republic stock was selling at around $147 per share. Yesterday morning (Thursday, April 27), the shares were at $5.81. That’s a massive and probably unrecoverable drop. There are dozens of smaller banks — with similar levels of capitalization — standing by as the next possible dominoes. These banks are continuing to lose deposits. Their shareholders must be feeling nervous. As I’ve mentioned before, the banking crisis was caused by the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates too low for too long. Years too long. This crisis is far from being over.

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David Stockman on Why Decades of Inflationary Finance Are Finally Coming Home to Roost.

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Jobless Claims Hover Near 17-Month Highs, Flash Recession Signal.

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US Discusses Ending Trade with Russia as Economic Sanctions Fail to Halt Aggression in Ukraine.

Commodities:

If China invaded Taiwan it would destroy world trade, says James Cleverly.

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Inflation’s double-edge sword for farmers.

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Four commodity risks for the rest of 2023.

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From OilPrice News: McKinsey: Europe Must Cut Gas Demand To Offset Supply Shortage.

Derivatives:

A PDF report from the ISDA: Under Scrutiny.  The report’s lead-in:

Recent market shocks have led policymakers and market participants to consider how the risk of liquidity shortfalls could be remedied.

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Reuters: Debt ceiling jitters lift US credit default swaps to highest since 2011.

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IMF: Nonbank Financial Sector Vulnerabilities Surface as Financial Conditions Tighten.

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Global Derivatives Industry Defends CDS After Banking Blow-Ups.

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Published in late March: ECB Says Regulators Should Review CDS Market After Bank Turmoil.

Forex & Cryptos:

Dollar plunges 7.4% in past six months — what it means.

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At Currency Thoughts: Swedish Central Bank Rate Hike.

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BOJ meeting: Can’t rule out a surprise move, which could see JPY strengthen materially.

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Euro outlook: EUR/USD struggles to make a break for 1.1100.

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South African Rand’s Biggest Rally of Year Is Just the Beginning, Nomura Says.

Tangibles Investing:

The commercial real estate market is now teetering: What Brookfield’s Default Has to Do with You.

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A CNN report: Blackstone is the latest victim of the weakening commercial real estate market.

Provisos:

SurvivalBlog and its Editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. Please see our Provisos page for our detailed disclaimers.

News Tips:

Please send your economics and investing news tips to JWR. (Either via e-mail or via our Contact form.) These are often especially relevant because they come from folks who closely watch specific markets. If you spot any news that would be of interest to SurvivalBlog readers, then please send it in. News items from local news outlets that are missed by the news wire services are especially appreciated. Thanks!