A popular crypto-based prediction platform said a French trader spent $45 million on wagers that Donald Trump will win the US presidential election, skewing the betting market in the Republican’s favor.
The trader used different accounts on Polymarket, which doesn’t permit US users. The platform has Trump’s odds at 61%, up from 50% in early October, which was more in line with polling.
The ubiquity of prediction platforms has been a defining feature of this election: Proponents say they are more reactive to developments in the race compared to polls.
But election watchers question whether they are “in any way indicative of reality, or whether the bets might constitute a form of manipulation, astroturfing momentum for Trump,” The New Yorker’s Kyle Chayka wrote.
