Democrats’ Senate prospects this year were always daunting, and it’s a testament to their surprising 2022 results – especially Sen. John Fetterman’s flip of Pennsylvania – that they are even competitive. Back in 2018, many of Tester and Brown’s red-state Democratic colleagues were wiped out, and it was clear as early as October that Republicans would keep the majority.
That’s not quite the case right now.
“I would never say a race is over before an outcome is declared. But it’s encouraging that Tim Sheehy has run a good race,” said Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas.
Tester has won three close contests, making him the rare Democrat who hung on (with all seven of his remaining fingers) even as his state tilted more toward the GOP. Montana is also hard to poll and its statewide elections can turn on just a few thousand votes, leaving plenty of potential wrinkles and unknowns to potentially tip the race.
Democrats said privately that they’ve seen Tester’s polling go up and down recently and the race is not static. A second Democratic senator who views the Tester-Sheehy polls as worrisome said that despite all the factors working against Tester, “he’s a survivor” and should be treated as such.
Republicans coalesced around Sheehy early to keep conservative Montana Rep. Matt Rosendale out of the race after he lost to Tester in 2018, an effort spearheaded by the state’s junior senator and Senate GOP campaign chief Steve Daines. Republicans largely credit that push with their strong position now.
Still, Tester hasn’t stopped reminding voters that Sheehy is originally from out of state. More recently, the Montana tribal news outlet Char-Koosta News reported on Sheehy joking last year about the drinking habits of Native Americans, a critical voting bloc in the state.
Tester called his opponent’s remarks about Native Americans “unfortunate,” adding that “I don’t think there’s any room for racism in the country, and certainly not the United States Senate.” Daines dismissed any drag from Sheehy’s remarks, saying the Republican nominee is “going to be a great partner and ally working on behalf of Indian country.”
In a statement addressing the state of the race, a Sheehy spokesperson criticized Tester for his voting record in the Senate and support for Biden and Harris’ agenda.
“While Tester performs an Academy Award-winning performance of an ‘aw, shucks’ dirt farmer from Big Sandy to D.C. media who haven’t left the East Coast in decades, it’s clear to Montanans that Jon Tester has changed, and his liberal voting record proves it,” the spokesperson said.
Meanwhile, Republicans are kicking into high gear to match Democratic spending. During a Daines-hosted GOP lunch on Tuesday at the party’s Senate campaign headquarters, Republicans warned that Democrats are on pace to dramatically outspend them in swing states like Arizona, Nevada and Michigan, according to a person familiar with the meeting.
“We’ve got a gap we need to close,” Daines said ahead of the meeting. “Our biggest challenge right now is getting the resources out to the front lines.”
Republicans listened to Daines: Senate Minority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.), a candidate for GOP leader, transferred $4 million from his campaign accounts to the NRSC. All told, the NRSC netted $6.5 million on Tuesday alone.
