CNN data guru Harry Enten explained Wednesday that current polling now indicates that the 2024 election may see an all-time high in voter participation.
“We were looking at a much, potentially much lower turnout this go around in 2024 than 2020,” Enten began, noting that initially interest in the election was minimal.
“So this is [who is] almost certain to vote in the election. You look post-debate 2024. Look at that was just 55% of registered voters. That was actually the same as it was Pre-debate 55%. It was significantly lower than it was in 2020 during the summer when it was 60%,” Enten began, adding:
But look at where we are now. We are now at 62% after the RNC, after Kamala Harris gets into this race. And that is actually a higher number than what we saw during the summer of 2020 when it was 60%. So at this particular point, as we look at the math right now, if we are trusting what voters are saying, it’s actually possible we’ll see higher turnout than what we saw in 2020, which is what you pointed out was record turnout. So quite the shift here. It’s not just enthusiasm. It’s actually people saying that they’re going to go out and almost certainly vote.
“If you believe what voters are saying with that,” quipped anchor Kate Bolduan in reply.
Enten joked, “I mean, if we don’t then this is all not going to work.”
“Well, you know, it’s all funny money anyway. Why?” Bolduan followed up.
“Why is it? Well, you know, throughout this entire cycle, we’ve been pointing out that there were a ton of voters who dislike both Biden and Donald Trump,” Enten replied, explaining:
So pre-RNC, right, 20% in the New York Times polling 20% in Ipsos polling. Look at where we are today. Look how dramatically these numbers have dropped. Look at this, New York Times down 8% who say they dislike Harris and Trump. How about Ipsos the same pattern 7%. This is very different now than what we saw prior. It looks a lot more like 2020, when it was just 3% who dislike both major major party candidates and very much unlike what we saw in 2016 when it was 18% in the exit polls, which looked a lot more like what we saw earlier in the year.
So the fact is, voters are much more apt to at least like one of the candidates. And I think that’s part of the reason why voters are much more likely to turn out. Because if you dislike both major party candidates, why actually turn out and vote?
Watch the clip above via CNN.
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