Trump’s Iowa lead shrinks significantly as Kamala Harris replaces Biden, Iowa Poll shows

• Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump leads Democrat Kamala Harris in the latest Iowa Poll 47% to 43%.
• Harris has dramatically improved on Joe Biden’s performance; Biden trailed Donald Trump by 18 percentage points in a June Iowa Poll.
• Eighty percent of Harris’ supporters say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about her as their choice for president — compared with 74% of Trump’s supporters.
• Trump leads with men 59% to 32% over Harris. And Harris leads with women 53% to 36%.

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Kamala Harris has significantly narrowed the presidential race in Iowa, cutting Donald Trump’s lead to 4 percentage points in a dramatic turnaround from Joe Biden’s double-digit deficit.  

A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows that Trump leads Vice President Harris 47% to 43% among likely Iowa voters — a far slimmer margin than the 18-point lead the former Republican president enjoyed over Democratic President Biden in late spring. 

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About the Iowa Poll 

The Iowa Poll, conducted Sept. 8-11, 2024, for The Des Moines Register and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 811 Iowans ages 18 or older. Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted households with randomly selected landline and cell phone numbers supplied by Dynata. Interviews were administered in English. Responses were adjusted by age, sex and congressional district to reflect the general population based on recent American Community Survey estimates.  

Questions based on the sample of 811 Iowa adults have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents—such as by gender or age—have a larger margin of error.  

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit and, on digital platforms, links to originating content on The Des Moines Register and Mediacom is prohibited.