In the immediate aftermath of upsets like Donald Trump’s first election and Brexit in 2016, victory for a new brand of right-wing, anti-establishment politics seemed like it could be inevitable. While this strand of politics has proven durable, and disruptive to world governments, elections since 2016 have proven time and again that Trumpist or nationalist politics are not even close to invincible — and in fact, have glaring, fundamental flaws that can limit their reach.
Campaigns are important. Two French elections, in which Marine Le Pen surged closer to Macron in polls, ultimately saw her easily defeated. A groundswell of support, including a broad call to reject Le Pen that included left-wing leaders like Jean-luc Melenchon, rose to give Macron larger-than-expected victories. The strategy was replicated in recent legislative elections, and projections of a National Rally victory were never realized thanks to a coordinated cross-ideological effort
In Spain, Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has developed a reputation as an electoral mastermind. But his signature strategy has been running against the newly-emerged nationalist party Vox. Sanchez has effectively tied Vox, known for apologism of the dictator Francisco Franco, to conservatives in the country as a whole, pointing out the party’s likely role in any potential government of the right.
Both cases saw the far-right used as a bludgeon against itself. The fatal flaw of the Trump playbook — which parties like Vox explicitly adopted, and which incentivized bombastic and often vicious campaigning — is its ability to alienate voters outside of its base.
Nevertheless, nationalists around the world have seen breakthroughs. Italy eventually witnessed its most right-wing government since World War II, led by Giorgia Meloni. Across Latin America, far-right leaders are still charging at political systems, and capable of winning almost anywhere. Brazil’s Bolsonaro had a Trump-like experience, with a shocking rise and narrow ouster. Argentina’s Milei has similarly jolted politics, and will defend his tenure in 2027.
The playbook to counter them is there, though, and it’s worked in many places. Victory for the far-right is not inevitable. Americans who defeated Trump in 2020 may yet opt for the same choice in 2024. Kamala Harris, whose own anti-Trump coalition includes everyone from Dick Cheney to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, seems to understand the strategy: Winning the debate was as easy as winding Trump up, and letting him speak.
