There seemed this week to be a palpable shift in the winds of war favoring Ukraine as it contemplates what could well be the pivotal battle in its existential struggle against Russian President Vladimir Putin’s downtrodden but not yet defeated invasion army.
Several propitious developments helped bolster the perception that however fickle, for now at least, fortune seems to be favoring the brave Ukrainian defenders.
BIDEN’S DEBT GAMES ARE ALL PLAYED OUT
First, there was a psychological victory after 10 months of brutal fighting in the bombed-out city of Bakhmut.
Ukrainian fighters pulled off a surprise counterattack that routed Russian forces, killing as many as 500 enemy troops and triggering a series of video tantrums from Wagner mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, who in one post said he thought Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive was “in full swing” and in another warned Russia’s front lines in Bakhmut were “collapsing.”
The rants aimed at Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov, the overall commander of Russian forces, resulted in the hurried dispatch of reinforcements and additional artillery ammunition to shore up Russian positions but also revealed a leadership structure riven with deep divisions and lacking unity of command.
And while Russia still occupies most of Bakhmut, Ukraine now holds the high ground around the city and the main supply route into the region.
The episode demonstrated how easily Russia’s poorly trained, ill-equipped troops can be spooked when they don’t know what’s coming and seemed to provide validation of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s strategy of using troops who are not intended to be part of the counterinvasion force to pin down Russian forces and inflict heavy, demoralizing casualties.
In an intelligence assessment posted on Twitter, the British Defense Ministry said “on paper,” Russian troops in Ukraine still number more than 200,000.
But the reality is that while a year ago, the Russian army was comprised of professional soldiers trained and equipped with “reasonably modern vehicles,” the U.K. assessment is that “now the force is mostly poorly-trained mobilized reservists, increasingly reliant on antiquated equipment, with many of units severely under-strength.”
Then there was the performance of Ukraine’s increasingly robust Western-supplied integrated air defenses, bolstered by the U.S. Patriot system, which has racked up an impressive record against Russia’s vaunted hypersonic, air-launched Kinzhal (Dagger) missile.
Ukraine claims to have shot down all the Kinzhals targeting Kyiv. And even if the claim proves to be overstated, one of Russia’s most sophisticated conventional weapons has been shown to be as vulnerable as any other cruise-type missile.
And finally, Zelensky, who for the first year of the war rarely strayed from his bunkered headquarters in Kyiv, has been freely touring European capitals collecting accolades — and, more importantly, vows of unwavering support along with pledges of even more advanced weaponry.
Over a whirlwind weekend, Zelensky met with the leaders of Italy, Germany, France, and Britain.
Germany announced another $3 billion package of arms, including more tanks, anti-aircraft systems, and ammunition. France committed to training more Ukrainian troops and providing additional light tanks, armored vehicles, and air defenses.
“With each visit, Ukraine’s defense and offensive capabilities are expanding,” Zelensky tweeted during the trip. “The ties with Europe are getting stronger, and the pressure on Russia is growing.”
In a release from the office of British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, which featured a photo of Sunak welcoming Zelensky to the United Kingdom with an enthusiastic bear hug, Sunak’s government announced that in addition to the hundreds of long-range Storm Shadow cruise missiles it recently sent to Ukraine, it would also begin pilot training in anticipation of Ukraine soon receiving the F-16 fighter jets it’s been begging for.
“We spoke about the jets. [They] were important topic for us,” Zelensky said after meeting with Sunak outside London. “In the closest time, you will hear some, I think, important decisions, but we have to work a little bit more on it.”
“This is a crucial moment in Ukraine’s resistance to a terrible war of aggression they did not choose or provoke,” Sunak said. “We must not let them down.”
Some European countries have American F-16s, but the United States has by far the biggest fleet, numbering around 800, with older F-16s regularly being retired to the “boneyard” as they are replaced by newer fifth-generation F-35s.
But the Pentagon says its reticence over sending F-16s to Ukraine is not about the supply; it’s about how useful they would be in a war zone bristling with anti-aircraft missiles.
“Right now, the skies on both sides are just — it’s absolutely lethal,” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told a Senate committee May 16. “So anytime that you put any meaningful number of aircraft in the sky, one or the other is going to shoot it down.”
If Ukraine has one big worry, it’s that hopes may be too high.
“The expectation from our counteroffensive campaign is overestimated in the world,” Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov told the Washington Post this month. “Most people are … waiting for something huge,” which may lead, he said, to “emotional disappointment.”
“The Ukrainians have been at pains the last few weeks to try and downplay expectations,” former Defense Secretary Robert Gates said at a recent forum. “I think there’s a general view that for there to be any chance of a negotiated outcome here, there has to be a success in this counteroffensive, and it doesn’t mean knocking out the Russian army; it means being able to take back territory, particularly in the south that gives the Ukrainians access to the Sea of Azov.”
Ukraine has not announced any specific goals but says it eventually wants to take back Crimea, illegally annexed by Russia in 2014.
At the same forum, former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta worried that U.S. and allied aid to Ukraine has been too slow.
“I’m a little concerned that it’s taken a while because obviously, in any offensive, surprise is the key factor, and I’m afraid we’re losing the element of surprise here,” Panetta said. “They’ll have to do diversions; they’ll have to do what they can to try to at least force the Russians to anticipate where this offensive is coming from.”
“I’ve consistently underestimated the capacity of the Ukrainians for success. I regret doing that. I think there could be some big surprises in here if they have the confidence to do what they do well,” said Alex Younger, former chief of Britain’s Secret Intelligence Service, known as MI6.
“Ukrainians must play to their strengths,” Younger told the forum. “Their genius so far has been the capacity to adapt and improvise, including in contact with the enemy in a way that has confounded the decentralized and poorly motivated Russian forces.”
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The one element of surprise in what Sen. Angus King (I-ME) has called “the longest wind up for a punch in the history of the world” is the timing for when the counteroffensive will begin in earnest.
“We’re really in need of some more time. Not too much. We’ll be ready, you know, in some time,” Zelensky said in London. “There are some secrets from our neighbors.”
