February 25, 2024

Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. In this column, JWR also covers hedges, derivatives, and various obscura. This column emphasizes JWR’s “tangibles heavy” investing strategy and contrarian perspective. Today, we look at the risk of a recession or an economic depression, in 2024.

Precious Metals:

The gold-to-platinum ratio continues to further escape reality. When I last checked (Thursday, December 21, 2023), with spot gold at $2,057.80 and spot platinum at $982.90, the ratio stood at 2.093-to-1.  Historically, platinum has sold at a premium above the price of gold. In fact, platinum was worth more per ounce than gold for the great majority of the 20th Century.  Whenever metals price ratios reach extreme inflection points, it is appropriate for individual investors to pause and consider doing some ratio trading.  As I’ve mentioned before in SurvivalBlog, the only real impediment to doing so vis-a-vis gold and platinum is the ridiculously high premium charged by coin dealers for platinum coins. The latter are produced in pitifully small numbers. This explains the high premium.  If you can find any platinum coins from a reputable dealer with a reasonable premium, then please consider making a ratio trade on a portion of your physical gold holdings.  If World War 3 breaks out and the gold-to-platinum price ratio reverts to its historical norm, then you will make a substantial profit. – JWR

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Gold: Rally could continue in 2024. (Video)

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Silver’s window of opportunity is closing, with prices poised for an ‘explosive move’ in 2024.

Economy & Finance:

Reader W. F. suggested this piece at USN&WR: Recession 2024: What to Watch and How to Prepare.

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Fortune: With interest rate hikes in Jerome Powell’s rearview mirror, Wall Street starts a new guessing game: Timing when the Fed will cut.

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A ‘severe recession’ may be coming in 2024 as the stock market, job market flash warning signs, strategist says. JWR’s Comments: In a deep recession or a depression, we can expect only essential industries (i.e. heating and staple foods eating) to do well.  Expect massive layoffs and stock declines, almost everywhere else. Subconsciously, people are already expecting this. Take Note: The only retailers that are booming are “dollar” stores. Dollar General plans to open 800 more stores, in 2024.

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Nigeria, again: “Astonishing Audit Failure”: SEC Charges Tingo Group With “Massive Fraud”.

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Mild recession is likely in 2024, strategist says.

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Kiplinger: The IRS is waiving penalties for nearly $1 billion in back taxes owed during the pandemic.

Commodities:

H.L. sent us this news: Oil Tumbles After Angola Announces It Is Leaving OPEC.

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Volkswagen, Audi, And Porsche Adopt Tesla EV Plug As NACS Becomes Gold Standard.

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EIA Projects Propane Prices 54 Percent Higher This Winter.

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From OilPrice News: OPEC Influence Wavers as U.S. Shale Roars Back.

Inflation/Deflation Watch:

Congressional Budget Office expects inflation will fall to 2.1% in 2024. JWR’s Comment: With a Federal Reserve pivot on interest rates expected, there is a good chance of resurging inflation.

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At the Whatfinger.com news aggregation site: Dave Brat: Inflation Is Permanent And Over The Last Four Years You’ve Lost 20% Of Your Purchasing Power.

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“You Expect Me To Tip For That?”: Americans Are Tired Of Tipflation.

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Argentina inflation to end year at 210%, stay high in 2024 – J.P. Morgan.

Forex & Cryptos:

Bloomberg: Fidelity, JPMorgan Buck Market by Betting on Stronger Dollar.

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At Currency Thoughts: More Central Bank Decisions and U.S. Stock Futures Rebound ahead of GDP Data Releases.

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Futures Rebound From Worst Market Rout In Three Months.

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Crypto Stocks Trading ‘Like a Mania’ As Bitcoin ETF Likely By January 10.

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Elizabeth Warren Launches ‘Anti-Money Laundering Act’ to Crack Down on Crypto JWR Asks:  Cui bono? I should mention that I’m still predicting an all-out war (with negative PR and regulation) on private cryptos, once the sovereign CBDCs are launched. Evil Money abhors Honest Money.

Tangibles Investing:

Dave Ramsey shares major ‘reality check’ on buying a car now.

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Brownells (one of our affiliate advertisers) has some great New Year’s specials, including some rifle and handgun parts at discounts as deep as 50% off. Take a look!

Provisos:

SurvivalBlog and its Editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. Please see our Provisos page for our detailed disclaimers.

News Tips:

Please send your economics and investing news tips to JWR. (Either via e-mail or via our Contact form.) These are often especially relevant because they come from folks who closely watch specific markets. If you spot any news that would be of interest to SurvivalBlog readers, then please send it in. News items from local news outlets that are missed by the news wire services are especially appreciated. Thanks!